if you would like to have "Published" as your default selection in the frontend of joomla! new content component, edit this file: /components/com_content/content.html.php

warning: this is an html replacement for php script, there will be no language translation for the word "published" or "unpublished" on your frontend. therefore this frontpage content component is the only component affected by this edit.

Original:
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<?php echo $lists['state']; ?>
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New:
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<select name="state" class="inputbox" size="1">
<option value="0">Unpublished</option>
<option value="1" selected="selected">Published</option>
</select>